Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Nick Smith Jr.Points24
- Tre MannAssists6
- JT ThorRebounds9
Cavaliers- Georges NiangPoints16
- Max StrusAssists11
- Max StrusRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–110
- Q49.1shot clock turnover120–110
- Q431.1Leaky Black defensive rebound120–110
- Q433.1Leaky Black blocks Isaiah Mobley 's 6-foot driving floating jump shot120–110
- Q446.1Nick Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amari Bailey assists)120–110
- Q41:06JT Thor defensive rebound117–110
- Q41:06JT Thor blocks Tristan Thompson's driving dunk117–110
- Q41:16Isaiah Mobley offensive rebound117–110
- Q41:20JT Thor blocks Emoni Bates 's 1-foot two point shot117–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:34Nick Smith Jr. makes 27-foot step back jumpshotCHA 105 – 108 CLE · CHA 14% → 27% +13CHA 14% → 27%+13 pts
- Q43:37Nick Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amari Bailey assists)CHA 110 – 108 CLE · CHA 38% → 60% +22CHA 38% → 60%+22 pts
- Q43:21Amari Bailey makes 1-foot dunkCHA 112 – 108 CLE · CHA 61% → 75% +14CHA 61% → 75%+14 pts
- Q42:59Tristan Thompson makes 10-foot two point shotCHA 112 – 110 CLE · CLE 23% → 38% +15CLE 23% → 38%+15 pts
- Q42:22JT Thor makes two point shotCHA 115 – 110 CLE · CHA 73% → 86% +13CHA 73% → 86%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 73%
- Fair odds
- CLE -208
- CHA +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 104.6 – 110.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1328 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | −58 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +169 Elo | CLE 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 67.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.4 | Points scored | 112.720th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 110.17th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.5 | Margin | +2.612th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 110.96th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.6 | Pace | 98.626th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 28th of 309–31 | Road vs home | 25–1410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.