Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Gradey DickPoints25
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds10
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints24
- Mike ConleyAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–112
- Q415.0Rudy Gobert defensive rebound101–112
- Q416.1Scottie Barnes misses driving layup101–112
- Q425.0Mike Conley makes free throw 2 of 2101–112
- Q425.0Mike Conley makes free throw 1 of 2101–111
- Q425.0Davion Mitchell personal take foul101–110
- Q434.1Ochai Agbaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)101–110
- Q435.1Jakob Poeltl offensive rebound98–110
- Q439.0Gradey Dick misses 26-foot three point jumper98–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:59Mike Conley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)TOR 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 89% → 91% +3MIN 89% → 91%+3 pts
- Q19:39Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)TOR 3 – 5 MIN · TOR 7% → 10% +3TOR 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q18:17Mike Conley makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotTOR 3 – 8 MIN · MIN 90% → 92% +3MIN 90% → 92%+3 pts
- Q310:55Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 49 – 58 MIN · TOR 4% → 6% +2TOR 4% → 6%+2 pts
- Q310:19Jaden McDaniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)TOR 49 – 61 MIN · MIN 94% → 96% +2MIN 94% → 96%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -14.5
- ML TOR +750 / MIN -1300
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8.5
- MIN 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 79.8%, market 88.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -789
- TOR +789 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 102.5 – 117.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −31 | −14 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | MIN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +239 Elo | MIN 79.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 80.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 80.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 88.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30112.4 | Points scored | 113.018th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 106.51st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.4 | Margin | +6.53rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 113.716th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 107.21st of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.1 | Pace | 98.822nd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–30 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.