Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints35
- Kelly OlynykAssists6
- RJ BarrettRebounds11
Heat- Nikola JovicPoints22
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists9
- Kevin LoveRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–125
- Q41.1shot clock turnover103–125
- Q425.1Jamal Cain defensive rebound103–125
- Q427.1Javon Freeman-Liberty misses running pullup jump shot103–125
- Q432.0Jordan Nwora defensive rebound103–125
- Q435.2Alondes Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper103–125
- Q459.1Javon Freeman-Liberty makes free throw 2 of 2103–125
- Q459.1Delon Wright enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.102–125
- Q459.1Javon Freeman-Liberty makes free throw 1 of 2102–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:52Jimmy Butler makes 22-foot three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists)TOR 2 – 7 MIA · MIA 82% → 86% +4MIA 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q16:38Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three pointerTOR 13 – 14 MIA · TOR 16% → 20% +4TOR 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q15:43Tyler Herro makes 23-foot three pointer (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)TOR 13 – 17 MIA · MIA 80% → 84% +4MIA 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q28:27Bruce Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Javon Freeman-Liberty assists)TOR 34 – 40 MIA · TOR 11% → 14% +4TOR 11% → 14%+4 pts
- Q28:11Haywood Highsmith makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Delon Wright assists)TOR 34 – 43 MIA · MIA 85% → 89% +4MIA 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -11
- MIA 85%
- Fair odds
- MIA -389
- TOR +389 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 104.1 – 114.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −63 | +25 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +301 Elo | MIA 85.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 78.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 79.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30112.6 | Points scored | 109.927th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 108.53rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.1 | Margin | +1.316th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 112.121st of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 110.75th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.1 | Pace | 97.629th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–28 | Road vs home | 20–1918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.