Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points28
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists4
- Andre DrummondRebounds9
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints27
- Jonathan MogboAssists5
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–115
- Q413.2Jakob Poeltl defensive rebound107–115
- Q415.1Caleb Martin misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot107–115
- Q421.1Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2107–115
- Q421.1Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2107–114
- Q421.1Tyrese Maxey personal take foul107–113
- Q423.1Caleb Martin makes 6-foot two point shot107–113
- Q432.2Jamal Shead makes free throw 2 of 2105–113
- Q432.2Jamal Shead makes free throw 1 of 2105–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:34Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Mogbo assists)PHI 45 – 55 TOR · TOR 57% → 64% +8TOR 57% → 64%+8 pts
- Q21:21Jamal Shead makes 27-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)PHI 54 – 62 TOR · TOR 53% → 61% +8TOR 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q34:14Eric Gordon makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)PHI 69 – 76 TOR · PHI 25% → 35% +9PHI 25% → 35%+9 pts
- Q31:54Scottie Barnes makes 6-foot two point shotPHI 76 – 80 TOR · TOR 49% → 57% +8TOR 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q31:10Jonathan Mogbo makes dunk (D.J. Carton assists)PHI 76 – 82 TOR · TOR 58% → 65% +8TOR 58% → 65%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -5.5
- ML PHI -210 / TOR +180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.6%, market 65.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -190
- TOR +190 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 113.0 – 107.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −83 | −46 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +39 Elo | PHI 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 112.421st of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 118.825th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.0 | Margin | −6.424th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 110.424th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 116.726th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.4 | Pace | 101.111th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 14–2724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 4–0 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.