New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints39
- Jalen BrunsonAssists13
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds7
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints50
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–125
- Q40.0Knicks offensive team rebound114–125
- Q40.1Isaiah Hartenstein misses 56-foot three point jumper114–125
- Q41.0shot clock turnover114–125
- Q422.1Nicolas Batum defensive rebound114–125
- Q426.1Jalen Brunson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot114–125
- Q429.1Joel Embiid makes free throw 2 of 2114–125
- Q429.1Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2114–124
- Q429.1Josh Hart personal foul114–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:39Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot step back jumpshotNY 62 – 62 PHI · PHI 42% → 51% +9PHI 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q37:01Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot step back jumpshotNY 66 – 71 PHI · PHI 58% → 67% +9PHI 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q35:36Joel Embiid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)NY 68 – 76 PHI · PHI 68% → 76% +9PHI 68% → 76%+9 pts
- Q35:07Joel Embiid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)NY 70 – 79 PHI · PHI 71% → 79% +8PHI 71% → 79%+8 pts
- Q33:17Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)NY 80 – 85 PHI · NY 22% → 31% +9NY 22% → 31%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1
- PHI 46%
- Fair odds
- PHI -107
- NY +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 106.8 – 107.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1617 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | +54 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +28 Elo | NY 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 114.615th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 111.59th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +3.09th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 114.714th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 111.611th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.2 | Pace | 99.418th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 11th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 5–1 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.