Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints33
- Joel EmbiidAssists6
- Tobias HarrisRebounds9
Knicks- Josh HartPoints22
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Josh HartRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–111
- Q42.1Josh Hart makes free throw 2 of 2104–111
- Q42.1Paul Reed enters the game for Joel Embiid104–110
- Q42.1Josh Hart makes free throw 1 of 2104–110
- Q42.1Kelly Oubre Jr. personal foul104–109
- Q43.0Josh Hart offensive rebound104–109
- Q44.1OG Anunoby misses 14-foot step back jumpshot104–109
- Q430.0Tyrese Maxey makes two point shot104–109
- Q437.1Mitchell Robinson makes free throw 2 of 2102–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:54Bojan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)PHI 82 – 82 NY · NY 40% → 53% +13NY 40% → 53%+13 pts
- Q47:37Miles McBride makes 24-foot three pointerPHI 86 – 91 NY · NY 63% → 76% +14NY 63% → 76%+14 pts
- Q45:08Josh Hart makes 25-foot three pointer (Miles McBride assists)PHI 90 – 94 NY · NY 59% → 76% +17NY 59% → 76%+17 pts
- Q42:18Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three pointerPHI 95 – 98 NY · PHI 7% → 23% +15PHI 7% → 23%+15 pts
- Q41:55Josh Hart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)PHI 95 – 101 NY · NY 79% → 94% +15NY 79% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3
- NY 62%
- Fair odds
- NY -131
- PHI +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 106.6 – 108.6 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +59 | +36 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +84 Elo | NY 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 112.819th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 108.22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +4.65th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 115.87th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.4 | Pace | 97.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–3 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.