Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints35
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists10
- Joel EmbiidRebounds10
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints24
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Josh HartRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–104
- Q40.076ers offensive team rebound101–104
- Q40.0Joel Embiid misses 24-foot three point jumper101–104
- Q46.1OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2101–104
- Q46.1OG Anunoby makes free throw 1 of 2101–103
- Q46.1Tobias Harris personal foul101–102
- Q46.1OG Anunoby defensive rebound101–102
- Q47.1Tyrese Maxey misses two point shot101–102
- Q413.0Miles McBride enters the game for Jalen Brunson101–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:49Tyrese Maxey makes two point shotPHI 94 – 94 NY · PHI 34% → 48% +14PHI 34% → 48%+14 pts
- Q43:32Isaiah Hartenstein makes 8-foot two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)PHI 94 – 96 NY · NY 52% → 67% +15NY 52% → 67%+15 pts
- Q42:22Tyrese Maxey makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 97 – 96 NY · PHI 39% → 58% +19PHI 39% → 58%+19 pts
- Q41:09Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 100 – 96 NY · PHI 62% → 91% +29PHI 62% → 91%+29 pts
- Q413.0Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)PHI 101 – 102 NY · NY 6% → 78% +72NY 6% → 78%+72 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3.5
- NY 63%
- Fair odds
- NY -136
- PHI +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 106.4 – 108.7 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1614 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +56 | +31 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +94 Elo | NY 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 57.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 112.819th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 108.22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +4.65th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 115.87th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.4 | Pace | 97.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–4 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.