New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints41
- Jalen BrunsonAssists12
- Josh HartRebounds14
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints39
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists5
- Joel EmbiidRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–115
- Q42.0Josh Hart defensive rebound118–115
- Q42.0Buddy Hield misses 26-foot three point jumper118–115
- Q47.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2118–115
- Q47.1Miles McBride enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein117–115
- Q47.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2117–115
- Q47.1Nicolas Batum personal take foul116–115
- Q410.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2116–115
- Q410.0Isaiah Hartenstein enters the game for Miles McBride116–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:11Kelly Oubre Jr. makes dunkNY 109 – 108 PHI · PHI 16% → 38% +21PHI 16% → 38%+21 pts
- Q453.1Jalen Brunson makes 9-foot pullup jump shotNY 111 – 108 PHI · NY 64% → 87% +23NY 64% → 87%+23 pts
- Q434.2Tyrese Maxey makes 1-foot two point shotNY 111 – 110 PHI · PHI 8% → 32% +24PHI 8% → 32%+24 pts
- Q425.1Josh Hart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 114 – 111 PHI · NY 50% → 95% +46NY 50% → 95%+46 pts
- Q420.1Joel Embiid makes 1-foot two point shot (Nicolas Batum assists)NY 114 – 113 PHI · PHI 3% → 27% +24PHI 3% → 27%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -0.5
- PHI 51%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- NY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 106.4 – 107.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +59 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +10 Elo | PHI 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 114.615th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 111.59th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +3.09th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 114.714th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 111.611th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.2 | Pace | 99.418th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 11th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 6–3 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Apr 30PHI 112 @ NY 106PlayoffsPicked NY 59%Miss
- Apr 28NY 97 @ PHI 92PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss
- Apr 25NY 114 @ PHI 125PlayoffsPicked PHI 52%Hit
- Apr 22PHI 101 @ NY 104PlayoffsPicked NY 58%Hit
- Apr 20PHI 104 @ NY 111PlayoffsPicked NY 57%Hit
- Mar 12PHI 79 @ NY 106Picked NY 64%Hit
- Mar 10PHI 79 @ NY 73Picked NY 70%Miss
- Feb 22NY 110 @ PHI 96Picked NY 55%Hit