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Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

Final/OTNY leads series 3-2

Away

76ers

47-35

112–106

at

Home

Knicks

50-32

PHI 41%NY 59%

You didn't pick this one.

Madison Square Garden · TNT, TSN, NBC Sports Phil

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.

NY favored PHI favored111 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4OTNY50%PHI

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

76ers
Knicks

Last plays

  • OT0.0End of Game112–106
  • OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime112–106
  • OT1.1Tobias Harris defensive rebound112–106
  • OT1.1Miles McBride misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot112–106
  • OT5.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2112–106
  • OT5.0Kyle Lowry enters the game for Joel Embiid111–106
  • OT5.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2111–106
  • OT5.0Josh Hart personal take foul110–106
  • OT8.076ers Full timeout110–106
  • OT8.0Joel Embiid defensive rebound110–106

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q48.1Tyrese Maxey makes 34-foot three pointerPHI 97 – 97 NY · PHI <1% → 50% +49
  2. OT4:28Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerPHI 97 – 100 NY · NY 53% → 72% +19
  3. OT1:40Joel Embiid makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Tobias Harris assists)PHI 105 – 102 NY · PHI 59% → 79% +19
  4. OT1:14Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 106 – 106 NY · NY 17% → 51% +34
  5. OT1:02Kelly Oubre Jr. makes layup (Nicolas Batum assists)PHI 108 – 106 NY · PHI 49% → 75% +26

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Knicks 59%

LeanMiss
PHI 41%NY 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
NY 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -3
NY 63%
Fair odds
NY -142
PHI +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
PHI 105.6 – 108.3 NY
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHINYWhy
Team rating15321612Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+60+34PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsNY +90 EloNY 62.7%
Market-implied ratingsNY 58.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 58.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatNY
15th of 30114.6Points scored112.819th of 30
9th of 30111.5Points allowed108.22nd of 30
9th of 30+3.0Margin+4.65th of 30
14th of 30114.7Offense rating115.87th of 30
11th of 30111.6Defense rating111.17th of 30
18th of 3099.4Pace97.230th of 30
1st of 308–2Last 106–410th of 30
12th of 3022–19Road vs home27–148th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

76ers

+60 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Knicks

+34 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

76ersKnicks
13501450155016501750league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

PHI 2–6 NY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.