Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints30
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints25
- Kyle LowryAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–109
- Q42.0Ricky Council IV makes free throw 2 of 2124–109
- Q42.0Ricky Council IV makes free throw 1 of 2124–108
- Q42.0Ryan Rollins shooting foul124–107
- Q423.0Tyler Smith makes dunk124–107
- Q423.0Tyler Smith offensive rebound122–107
- Q423.0AJ Johnson misses two point shot122–107
- Q437.1Ricky Council IV makes free throw 2 of 2122–107
- Q437.1MarJon Beauchamp enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.122–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:04Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 33% → 39% +6PHI 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q14:13Guerschon Yabusele makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists)MIL 12 – 15 PHI · PHI 38% → 45% +7PHI 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q11:54Bobby Portis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 19 – 17 PHI · MIL 59% → 66% +7MIL 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q210:04Pat Connaughton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 27 – 25 PHI · MIL 59% → 66% +7MIL 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q26:07Damian Lillard makes 22-foot three pointerMIL 36 – 33 PHI · MIL 60% → 68% +7MIL 60% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -4.5
- ML MIL -190 / PHI +160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.3%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -170
- PHI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 113.5 – 109.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −82 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +51 Elo | MIL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 114.615th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 111.59th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +3.09th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 114.714th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 111.611th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 99.418th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 3–0 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.