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Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

FinalIND wins series 4-2

Away

Bucks

49-33

98–120

at

Home

Pacers

47-35

MIL 36%IND 64%

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Gainbridge Fieldhouse · TNT, FanDuel SN IN, FanDuel SN WI

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored MIL favored117 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%MIL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Bucks
Pacers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game98–120
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–120
  • Q412.1shot clock turnover98–120
  • Q435.0Ben Sheppard defensive rebound98–120
  • Q439.1MarJon Beauchamp misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot98–120
  • Q451.1Kendall Brown lost ball turnover (Thanasis Antetokounmpo steals)98–120
  • Q41:00Andre Jackson Jr. makes 3-foot two point shot (MarJon Beauchamp assists)98–120
  • Q41:10Kendall Brown makes layup (Jarace Walker assists)96–120
  • Q41:20Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound96–118
  • Q41:21Chris Livingston misses free throw 1 of 196–118

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q18:06Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point shot (Pascal Siakam assists)MIL 10 – 6 IND · IND 49% → 55% +6
  2. Q17:47Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 13 – 6 IND · MIL 45% → 51% +7
  3. Q14:10Obi Toppin makes 26-foot three pointer (T.J. McConnell assists)MIL 17 – 21 IND · IND 65% → 71% +6
  4. Q210:00Aaron Nesmith makes 24-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)MIL 32 – 38 IND · IND 69% → 75% +6
  5. Q39:15Pascal Siakam makes 22-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)MIL 56 – 66 IND · IND 78% → 85% +6

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Pacers 64%

SolidHit
MIL 36%IND 64%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
IND 64%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
IND -3
IND 62%
Fair odds
IND -179
MIL +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 115.0 – 119.4 IND
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILINDWhy
Team rating15631536Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−61+16MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Travel−12−12MIL crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsIND +86 EloIND 62.2%
Market-implied ratingsIND 64.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastIND 64.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatIND
4th of 30119.0Points scored123.11st of 30
21st of 30116.4Points allowed120.327th of 30
11th of 30+2.6Margin+2.810th of 30
6th of 30116.4Offense rating118.72nd of 30
19th of 30113.8Defense rating115.924th of 30
7th of 30101.6Pace103.62nd of 30
22nd of 303–7Last 107–33rd of 30
18th of 3018–22Road vs home26–1510th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Bucks

−61 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pacers

+16 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BucksPacers
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

MIL 3–7 IND in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.