Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints36
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds13
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints35
- Patrick BeverleyAssists8
- Bobby PortisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–109
- Q44.0Pat Connaughton defensive rebound94–109
- Q44.1Pascal Siakam misses driving floating jump shot94–109
- Q414.0shot clock turnover94–109
- Q438.0Pascal Siakam out of bounds bad pass turnover94–109
- Q441.1Pat Connaughton lost ball turnover (Pascal Siakam steals)94–109
- Q455.0Khris Middleton defensive rebound94–109
- Q457.1Tyrese Haliburton misses running pullup jump shot94–109
- Q41:02Pascal Siakam defensive rebound94–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:26Damian Lillard makes 27-foot step back jumpshotIND 8 – 12 MIL · MIL 42% → 48% +6MIL 42% → 48%+6 pts
- Q14:30Damian Lillard makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotIND 13 – 17 MIL · MIL 42% → 49% +7MIL 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q11:26Malik Beasley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)IND 19 – 23 MIL · MIL 43% → 50% +7MIL 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q11:06Pat Connaughton makes 26-foot three point shot (Damian Lillard assists)IND 19 – 26 MIL · MIL 50% → 57% +7MIL 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q10.0Damian Lillard makes 28-foot step back jumpshotIND 21 – 30 MIL · MIL 55% → 62% +7MIL 55% → 62%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4
- IND 66%
- Fair odds
- IND -157
- MIL +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 121.7 – 118.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | −86 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +114 Elo | IND 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 119.04th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 116.421st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +2.611th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 116.46th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 31–114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 4–1 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.