Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Bobby PortisPoints17
- Khris MiddletonAssists5
- Bobby PortisRebounds10
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints26
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–113
- Q41.2shot clock turnover88–113
- Q423.1Jett Howard defensive rebound88–113
- Q428.1Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses dunk88–113
- Q431.1Ryan Rollins defensive rebound88–113
- Q436.1Anthony Black misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot88–113
- Q455.2TyTy Washington Jr. makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot88–113
- Q41:00Caleb Houstan makes free throw 2 of 286–113
- Q41:00Caleb Houstan makes free throw 1 of 286–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q137.0Jae Crowder makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 30 – 20 ORL · MIL 52% → 59% +7MIL 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q27:06Bobby Portis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 39 – 28 ORL · MIL 57% → 65% +7MIL 57% → 65%+7 pts
- Q26:17Jonathan Isaac makes 23-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)MIL 39 – 33 ORL · ORL 40% → 48% +8ORL 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q39:53Gary Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)MIL 46 – 52 ORL · ORL 70% → 77% +8ORL 70% → 77%+8 pts
- Q33:05Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Gary Harris assists)MIL 62 – 71 ORL · ORL 79% → 86% +7ORL 79% → 86%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3
- ORL 62%
- Fair odds
- ORL -197
- MIL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 106.6 – 111.7 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −73 | +3 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +86 Elo | ORL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 66.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 110.425th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 108.74th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +1.715th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 111.423rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.625th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 28–116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–1 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.