Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NBA games
Updated

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

FinalIND leads series 3-1

Away

Bucks

49-33

113–126

at

Home

Pacers

47-35

MIL 24%IND 76%

You didn't pick this one.

Gainbridge Fieldhouse · TNT, FanDuel SN IN, FanDuel SN WI

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored MIL favored113 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%MIL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Bucks
Pacers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game113–126
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–126
  • Q418.0Malik Beasley makes 25-foot step back jumpshot113–126
  • Q423.0Ben Sheppard makes free throw 2 of 2110–126
  • Q423.0Ben Sheppard makes free throw 1 of 2110–125
  • Q423.0Andre Jackson Jr. personal foul110–124
  • Q428.1AJ Green makes 29-foot three point jumper (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)110–124
  • Q433.0Ben Sheppard out of bounds bad pass turnover107–124
  • Q454.1Ben Sheppard defensive rebound107–124
  • Q458.0MarJon Beauchamp misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot107–124

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q11:02AJ Green makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)MIL 31 – 27 IND · MIL 28% → 35% +6
  2. Q147.0Doug McDermott makes 26-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)MIL 31 – 30 IND · IND 65% → 72% +6
  3. Q29:24Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)MIL 42 – 43 IND · IND 68% → 75% +6
  4. Q311:23Tyrese Haliburton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)MIL 66 – 70 IND · IND 72% → 79% +7
  5. Q410:35Brook Lopez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jae Crowder assists)MIL 92 – 98 IND · MIL 9% → 16% +7

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Pacers 76%

StrongHit
MIL 24%IND 76%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
IND 76%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
IND -8
IND 79%
Fair odds
IND -323
MIL +323 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 113.9 – 122.8 IND
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILINDWhy
Team rating15371562Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−139+28MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsIND +228 EloIND 78.8%
Market-implied ratingsIND 76.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastIND 76.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatIND
4th of 30119.0Points scored123.11st of 30
21st of 30116.4Points allowed120.327th of 30
11th of 30+2.6Margin+2.810th of 30
6th of 30116.4Offense rating118.72nd of 30
19th of 30113.8Defense rating115.924th of 30
7th of 30101.6Pace103.62nd of 30
22nd of 303–7Last 107–33rd of 30
18th of 3018–22Road vs home26–1510th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Bucks

−139 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pacers

+28 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BucksPacers
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

MIL 2–6 IND in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.