Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Khris MiddletonPoints42
- Damian LillardAssists8
- Bobby PortisRebounds18
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints29
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists16
- Tyrese HaliburtonRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game118–121
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime118–121
- OT0.0Bucks offensive team rebound118–121
- OT0.1Khris Middleton misses 23-foot three point shot118–121
- OT1.1Damian Lillard enters the game for Andre Jackson Jr.118–121
- OT1.1Bucks Full timeout118–121
- OT1.1Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 1 of 1118–121
- OT1.1Brook Lopez enters the game for Patrick Beverley118–120
- OT1.1T.J. McConnell enters the game for Myles Turner118–120
- OT1.1Patrick Beverley shooting foul118–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42.1Khris Middleton makes 30-foot three pointer (Brook Lopez assists)MIL 111 – 111 IND · MIL <1% → 49% +49MIL <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT1:03Andrew Nembhard makes 12-foot two point shotMIL 115 – 115 IND · IND 26% → 53% +27IND 26% → 53%+27 pts
- OT15.0Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)MIL 115 – 118 IND · IND 51% → 99% +47IND 51% → 99%+47 pts
- OT8.0Khris Middleton makes 26-foot jump bank shot (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 118 – 118 IND · MIL <1% → 49% +49MIL <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT1.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 15-foot driving floating jump shotMIL 118 – 120 IND · IND 50% → >99% +50IND 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -6
- IND 72%
- Fair odds
- IND -220
- MIL +220 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 115.3 – 121.3 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −77 | +29 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MIL crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +161 Elo | IND 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 123.11st of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 120.327th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +2.810th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 118.72nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 115.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 103.62nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–5 IND in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.