Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints37
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints34
- Khris MiddletonAssists6
- Bobby PortisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–108
- Q411.1Double technical foul: Chris Livingston and Obi Toppin125–108
- Q411.1shot clock turnover125–108
- Q434.1MarJon Beauchamp lost ball turnover (Ben Sheppard steals)125–108
- Q442.1Ben Sheppard makes 23-foot three pointer (T.J. McConnell assists)125–108
- Q41:05Andre Jackson Jr. makes tip shot122–108
- Q41:06Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound122–106
- Q41:07Jarace Walker blocks MarJon Beauchamp 's 4-foot two point shot122–106
- Q41:16Jarace Walker lost ball turnover (Andre Jackson Jr. steals)122–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:28Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)IND 48 – 48 MIL · IND 47% → 55% +8IND 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q21:34Damian Lillard makes 30-foot three pointerIND 54 – 55 MIL · MIL 39% → 48% +8MIL 39% → 48%+8 pts
- Q21:14Andrew Nembhard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 57 – 55 MIL · IND 52% → 61% +8IND 52% → 61%+8 pts
- Q232.1Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 60 – 55 MIL · IND 61% → 69% +8IND 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q359.1Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three pointerIND 88 – 83 MIL · MIL 19% → 28% +9MIL 19% → 28%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2
- IND 59%
- Fair odds
- IND -133
- MIL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 119.5 – 117.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | −78 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +61 Elo | IND 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 57.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 119.04th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 116.421st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +2.611th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 116.46th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 31–114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 4–2 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.