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Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast

FinalIND leads series 3-2

Away

Pacers

47-35

92–115

at

Home

Bucks

49-33

IND 69%MIL 31%

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Fiserv Forum · TNT, FanDuel SN WI, FanDuel SN IN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.

MIL favored IND favored104 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4MIL50%IND

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Pacers
Bucks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game92–115
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–115
  • Q416.0shot clock turnover92–115
  • Q440.0Isaiah Jackson makes 1-foot dunk (Obi Toppin assists)92–115
  • Q447.1Obi Toppin defensive rebound90–115
  • Q450.0MarJon Beauchamp misses free throw 2 of 290–115
  • Q450.0MarJon Beauchamp makes free throw 1 of 290–115
  • Q450.0Isaiah Jackson shooting foul90–114
  • Q450.0MarJon Beauchamp defensive rebound90–114
  • Q454.2Doug McDermott misses 23-foot three point jumper90–114

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q26:41Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)IND 36 – 39 MIL · IND 50% → 58% +8
  2. Q23:21Pat Connaughton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)IND 41 – 48 MIL · MIL 46% → 54% +8
  3. Q22:36Patrick Beverley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)IND 43 – 51 MIL · MIL 49% → 57% +8
  4. Q22:25Aaron Nesmith makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 46 – 51 MIL · IND 42% → 51% +8
  5. Q311:07Khris Middleton makes 26-foot three pointerIND 48 – 58 MIL · MIL 57% → 66% +9

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Pacers 69%

SolidMiss
IND 69%MIL 31%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
IND 69%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
IND -6
IND 72%
Fair odds
IND -224
MIL +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
IND 121.5 – 115.3 MIL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorINDMILWhy
Team rating15661533Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+31−140IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsIND +168 EloIND 72.4%
Market-implied ratingsIND 68.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastIND 69.2%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks compared, with each team's league rank
INDStatMIL
1st of 30123.1Points scored119.04th of 30
27th of 30120.3Points allowed116.421st of 30
10th of 30+2.8Margin+2.611th of 30
2nd of 30118.7Offense rating116.46th of 30
24th of 30115.9Defense rating113.819th of 30
2nd of 30103.6Pace101.67th of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 103–722nd of 30
15th of 3021–20Road vs home31–114th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Pacers

+31 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Bucks

−140 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PacersBucks
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

IND 7–2 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.