Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Gary Trent Jr.Points18
- Garrett TempleAssists7
- Jordan NworaRebounds11
Heat- Thomas BryantPoints18
- Tyler HerroAssists8
- Thomas BryantRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–118
- Q40.1Raptors offensive team rebound103–118
- Q40.1Garrett Temple misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot103–118
- Q46.1Alondes Williams makes driving layup103–118
- Q427.0Javon Freeman-Liberty makes free throw 2 of 2103–116
- Q427.0Javon Freeman-Liberty makes free throw 1 of 2102–116
- Q427.0Jamal Cain shooting foul101–116
- Q428.1Raptors offensive team rebound101–116
- Q428.1Alondes Williams blocks Jordan Nwora 's 1-foot two point shot101–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:49Tyler Herro makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)TOR 5 – 6 MIA · MIA 82% → 86% +4MIA 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q29:56Gradey Dick makes 22-foot three point jumper (Garrett Temple assists)TOR 29 – 25 MIA · TOR 20% → 26% +6TOR 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q29:38Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point shot (Delon Wright assists)TOR 29 – 27 MIA · MIA 74% → 78% +4MIA 74% → 78%+4 pts
- Q27:38Jordan Nwora makes driving layupTOR 33 – 31 MIA · TOR 19% → 23% +4TOR 19% → 23%+4 pts
- Q27:19Delon Wright makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)TOR 33 – 34 MIA · MIA 77% → 82% +5MIA 77% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -13.5
- MIA 90%
- Fair odds
- MIA -593
- TOR +593 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 102.9 – 116.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1357 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −126 | +31 | TOR: Missing RJ Barrett −31, Mouhamadou Gueye −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +378 Elo | MIA 89.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 85.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 85.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30112.5 | Points scored | 110.027th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 108.53rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.3 | Margin | +1.616th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 112.321st of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 110.75th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.0 | Pace | 97.629th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–29 | Road vs home | 21–1918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−126 Elo- RJ Barrett left knee soreness−31 Elo
- Mouhamadou Gueye right thumb injury−2 Elo
Heat
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.