Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints25
- Ty JeromeAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds9
Raptors- Chris BoucherPoints18
- Scottie BarnesAssists5
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–106
- Q417.1shot clock turnover136–106
- Q441.1Garrett Temple makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot136–106
- Q453.0Isaac Okoro makes 1-foot dunk (Ty Jerome assists)136–104
- Q456.1Davion Mitchell bad pass (Ty Jerome steals)134–104
- Q41:13Tristan Thompson makes 2-foot hook shot (Ty Jerome assists)134–104
- Q41:23Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound132–104
- Q41:26Jonathan Mogbo misses 25-foot three point jumper132–104
- Q41:42Ty Jerome makes 4-foot two point shot132–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:21Darius Garland makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 14 – 17 TOR · CLE 54% → 61% +7CLE 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q13:38Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 20 – 22 TOR · CLE 56% → 62% +7CLE 56% → 62%+7 pts
- Q13:02Gradey Dick makes 24-foot three pointer (Davion Mitchell assists)CLE 20 – 27 TOR · TOR 42% → 49% +7TOR 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q12:42Georges Niang makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)CLE 25 – 27 TOR · CLE 55% → 62% +7CLE 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q121.2Chris Boucher makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)CLE 31 – 32 TOR · TOR 30% → 36% +6TOR 30% → 36%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -6.5
- ML CLE -250 / TOR +200
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3.5
- CLE 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 63.1%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -214
- TOR +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 116.5 – 110.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | −20 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +93 Elo | CLE 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 61.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 112.421st of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 118.825th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.4 | Margin | −6.424th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 110.424th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 116.726th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 101.111th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 14–2724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–1 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.