Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints29
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints25
- Jayson TatumAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–94
- Q43.1shot clock turnover118–94
- Q428.1Oshae Brissett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden Springer assists)118–94
- Q439.1shot clock turnover118–91
- Q439.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound118–91
- Q440.1Tristan Thompson misses 12-foot two point shot118–91
- Q41:03Jordan Walsh makes two point shot118–91
- Q41:22Svi Mykhailiuk defensive rebound118–89
- Q41:24Marcus Morris Sr. misses 27-foot three point jumper118–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:58Darius Garland makes 27-foot three pointerCLE 60 – 56 BOS · CLE 33% → 41% +9CLE 33% → 41%+9 pts
- Q37:40Darius Garland makes 29-foot three pointerCLE 67 – 63 BOS · CLE 34% → 44% +9CLE 34% → 44%+9 pts
- Q37:14Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 70 – 63 BOS · CLE 44% → 54% +10CLE 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q35:11Darius Garland makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 77 – 66 BOS · CLE 60% → 69% +10CLE 60% → 69%+10 pts
- Q30.0Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three pointerCLE 90 – 78 BOS · CLE 71% → 81% +10CLE 71% → 81%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -12
- BOS 87%
- Fair odds
- BOS -345
- CLE +345 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 103.8 – 113.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1704 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −48 | +24 | CLE: Missing Jarrett Allen −37 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +332 Elo | BOS 87.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 76.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 77.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 109.25th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 121.11st of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 37–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−48 Elo- Jarrett Allen right rib contusion−37 Elo
Celtics
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–3 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.