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Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast

FinalSeries tied 3-3

Away

Cavaliers

48-34

96–103

at

Home

Magic

47-35

CLE 34%ORL 66%

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Kia Center · ESPN, FanDuel SN FL, FanDuel SN OH

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.

ORL favored CLE favored104 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4ORL50%CLE

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Cavaliers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game96–103
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–103
  • Q42.1Paolo Banchero defensive rebound96–103
  • Q42.1Darius Garland misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot96–103
  • Q48.0Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 296–103
  • Q48.0Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 296–102
  • Q48.0Evan Mobley personal take foul96–101
  • Q48.0Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound96–101
  • Q48.0Evan Mobley misses two point shot96–101
  • Q48.0Evan Mobley offensive rebound96–101

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q45:15Donovan Mitchell makes driving layupCLE 86 – 84 ORL · CLE 44% → 57% +13
  2. Q44:21Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumperCLE 86 – 89 ORL · ORL 55% → 74% +19
  3. Q44:01Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot step back jumpshotCLE 89 – 89 ORL · CLE 25% → 45% +20
  4. Q43:39Paolo Banchero makes 28-foot three pointer (Franz Wagner assists)CLE 89 – 92 ORL · ORL 55% → 75% +21
  5. Q41:57Cole Anthony makes tip shotCLE 91 – 96 ORL · ORL 81% → 92% +11

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Magic 66%

SolidHit
CLE 34%ORL 66%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
ORL 66%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
ORL -6
ORL 73%
Fair odds
ORL -197
CLE +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CLE 100.6 – 105.7 ORL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCLEORLWhy
Team rating14731534Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−51+24CLE: Missing Jarrett Allen −37 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsORL +173 EloORL 73.0%
Market-implied ratingsORL 65.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastORL 66.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic compared, with each team's league rank
CLEStatORL
20th of 30112.6Points scored110.524th of 30
7th of 30110.2Points allowed108.44th of 30
13th of 30+2.4Margin+2.015th of 30
17th of 30113.4Offense rating111.522nd of 30
6th of 30111.0Defense rating109.52nd of 30
26th of 3098.5Pace98.625th of 30
19th of 304–6Last 105–515th of 30
12th of 3022–19Road vs home29–116th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Cavaliers

−51 Elo
  • Jarrett Allen right rib contusion−37 Elo

Magic

+24 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CavaliersMagic
140014501500155016001650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

CLE 5–4 ORL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.