Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints15
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds8
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints31
- Franz WagnerAssists8
- Paolo BancheroRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game83–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter83–121
- Q417.1Sam Merrill makes 27-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)83–121
- Q426.1Anthony Black makes 17-foot pullup jump shot80–121
- Q437.0Georges Niang makes 18-foot two point shot (Damian Jones assists)80–119
- Q448.2Anthony Black makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot78–119
- Q457.1Anthony Black offensive rebound78–117
- Q41:02Chuma Okeke misses 26-foot three point jumper78–117
- Q41:22Anthony Black defensive rebound78–117
- Q41:22Isaac Okoro misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot78–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:27Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three point shot (Franz Wagner assists)CLE 14 – 16 ORL · ORL 47% → 54% +7ORL 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q13:13Caris LeVert makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Max Strus assists)CLE 21 – 18 ORL · CLE 50% → 57% +7CLE 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q12:12Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)CLE 21 – 24 ORL · ORL 50% → 57% +7ORL 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q211:07Darius Garland makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 26 – 32 ORL · CLE 29% → 36% +7CLE 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q210:42Jonathan Isaac makes 23-foot three point jumper (Joe Ingles assists)CLE 26 – 35 ORL · ORL 64% → 71% +7ORL 64% → 71%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CLE 50%
- Fair odds
- CLE -101
- ORL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 103.6 – 103.5 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | −6 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +1 Elo | CLE 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 110.524th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 108.44th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +2.015th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 111.522nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 109.52nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 98.625th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 29–116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 4–2 ORL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.