Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints24
- Paolo BancheroAssists5
- Paolo BancheroRebounds7
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game83–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter83–97
- Q45.0shot clock turnover83–97
- Q427.0Jarrett Allen defensive rebound83–97
- Q431.1Franz Wagner misses running pullup jump shot83–97
- Q434.1Franz Wagner defensive rebound83–97
- Q437.0Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot step back jumpshot83–97
- Q459.1Jalen Suggs makes free throw 2 of 283–97
- Q459.1Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 282–97
- Q459.1Darius Garland loose ball foul81–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:57Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three point shotORL 6 – 11 CLE · CLE 60% → 66% +6CLE 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q39:28Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 47 – 55 CLE · ORL 17% → 24% +7ORL 17% → 24%+7 pts
- Q38:24Jonathan Isaac makes 22-foot three point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 50 – 55 CLE · ORL 23% → 31% +8ORL 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q35:27Paolo Banchero makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 53 – 57 CLE · ORL 25% → 33% +9ORL 25% → 33%+9 pts
- Q34:11Donovan Mitchell makes 10-foot driving floating jump shotORL 56 – 62 CLE · CLE 67% → 73% +6CLE 67% → 73%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -0.5
- CLE 52%
- Fair odds
- CLE -125
- ORL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 105.2 – 106.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | +24 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +16 Elo | CLE 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 112.620th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 110.27th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +2.413th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 111.06th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.6 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 25–1511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 2–2 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.