Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints21
- Jalen SuggsAssists5
- Franz WagnerRebounds7
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints23
- Donovan MitchellAssists4
- Jarrett AllenRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–96
- Q411.1Paolo Banchero makes driving layup86–96
- Q418.1Isaac Okoro makes 1-foot dunk (Max Strus assists)84–96
- Q419.1Max Strus defensive rebound84–94
- Q422.1Jalen Suggs misses 26-foot three point jumper84–94
- Q424.1Jalen Suggs offensive rebound84–94
- Q428.1Jarrett Allen blocks Paolo Banchero 's 2-foot layup84–94
- Q430.0Paolo Banchero offensive rebound84–94
- Q432.0Paolo Banchero misses two point shot84–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:29Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotORL 0 – 3 CLE · CLE 58% → 64% +6CLE 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q14:59Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerORL 10 – 14 CLE · CLE 60% → 66% +6CLE 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q12:38Gary Harris makes three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)ORL 16 – 20 CLE · ORL 28% → 34% +6ORL 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q12:24Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three pointerORL 16 – 23 CLE · CLE 66% → 72% +6CLE 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q28:17Isaac Okoro makes 23-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)ORL 28 – 38 CLE · CLE 73% → 79% +6CLE 73% → 79%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2
- CLE 57%
- Fair odds
- CLE -140
- ORL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 103.4 – 106.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +25 | ORL: Usual rotation · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +50 Elo | CLE 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 112.620th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 110.27th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +2.413th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 111.06th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.6 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 25–1511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 2–3 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.