Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints39
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints28
- Darius GarlandAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–104
- Q40.0Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three point shot (Joe Ingles assists)103–104
- Q43.0Joe Ingles enters the game for Jonathan Isaac100–104
- Q43.0Magic Full timeout100–104
- Q43.0Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2100–104
- Q43.0Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2100–103
- Q43.0Franz Wagner personal foul100–102
- Q43.0Max Strus defensive rebound100–102
- Q45.0Evan Mobley blocks Franz Wagner 's 1-foot driving layup100–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:04Marcus Morris Sr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)ORL 90 – 90 CLE · CLE 30% → 48% +18CLE 30% → 48%+18 pts
- Q44:23Paolo Banchero makes 27-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 93 – 92 CLE · ORL 38% → 58% +20ORL 38% → 58%+20 pts
- Q43:34Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)ORL 95 – 97 CLE · CLE 41% → 64% +23CLE 41% → 64%+23 pts
- Q42:06Paolo Banchero makes 15-foot two point shotORL 98 – 97 CLE · ORL 41% → 61% +20ORL 41% → 61%+20 pts
- Q41:43Evan Mobley makes dunk (Max Strus assists)ORL 98 – 99 CLE · CLE 38% → 60% +22CLE 38% → 60%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3
- ORL 63%
- Fair odds
- ORL -123
- CLE +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 103.9 – 102.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | −48 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Missing Jarrett Allen −39 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +90 Elo | ORL 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 55.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 112.620th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 110.27th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +2.413th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 111.06th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.6 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 25–1511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−48 Elo- Jarrett Allen right rib contusion−39 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 4–4 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Apr 27CLE 89 @ ORL 112PlayoffsPicked ORL 56%Hit
- Apr 25CLE 83 @ ORL 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 50%Miss
- Apr 22ORL 86 @ CLE 96PlayoffsPicked CLE 58%Hit
- Apr 20ORL 83 @ CLE 97PlayoffsPicked CLE 56%Hit
- Feb 22ORL 116 @ CLE 109Picked CLE 64%Miss
- Jan 22CLE 126 @ ORL 99Picked CLE 66%Hit
- Dec 11CLE 94 @ ORL 104Picked ORL 60%Hit
- Dec 6ORL 111 @ CLE 121Picked CLE 50%Hit