Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints21
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds9
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints34
- Paolo BancheroAssists5
- Franz WagnerRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–112
- Q46.1Marcus Morris Sr. makes driving layup89–112
- Q413.1shot clock turnover87–112
- Q437.1Tristan Thompson makes 7-foot hook shot (Sam Merrill assists)87–112
- Q453.0Sam Merrill defensive rebound85–112
- Q455.1Anthony Black misses 21-foot pullup jump shot85–112
- Q41:16Marcus Morris Sr. makes 14-foot two point shot85–112
- Q41:26Anthony Black makes driving layup (Jett Howard assists)83–112
- Q41:42Tristan Thompson out of bounds bad pass turnover83–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:46Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)CLE 67 – 65 ORL · ORL 38% → 47% +10ORL 38% → 47%+10 pts
- Q36:18Wendell Carter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)CLE 67 – 71 ORL · ORL 57% → 66% +10ORL 57% → 66%+10 pts
- Q35:45Wendell Carter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)CLE 67 – 74 ORL · ORL 67% → 75% +9ORL 67% → 75%+9 pts
- Q35:26Max Strus makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 70 – 74 ORL · CLE 25% → 33% +9CLE 25% → 33%+9 pts
- Q32:54Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three pointer (Paolo Banchero assists)CLE 70 – 77 ORL · ORL 67% → 77% +9ORL 67% → 77%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3
- ORL 61%
- Fair odds
- ORL -125
- CLE +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 102.6 – 104.3 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | −1 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +78 Elo | ORL 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 55.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 110.524th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 108.44th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +2.015th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 111.522nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 109.52nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 98.625th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 29–116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 4–3 ORL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.