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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast

FinalBOS wins series 4-1

Away

Heat

46-36

84–118

at

Home

Celtics

64-18

MIA 24%BOS 76%

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TD Garden · TNT, NBC Sports BO, FanDuel SN Sun

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored MIA favored105 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4BOS50%MIA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Heat
Celtics

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game84–118
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter84–118
  • Q40.0shot clock turnover84–118
  • Q424.0Thomas Bryant makes free throw 1 of 184–118
  • Q424.0Xavier Tillman shooting foul83–118
  • Q424.0Thomas Bryant makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot83–118
  • Q441.1Celtics Full timeout81–118
  • Q441.1Jaden Springer traveling81–118
  • Q446.1Payton Pritchard defensive rebound81–118
  • Q448.1Delon Wright misses 26-foot step back jumpshot81–118

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q110:41Derrick White makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)MIA 2 – 5 BOS · BOS 75% → 80% +5
  2. Q19:29Caleb Martin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 5 – 7 BOS · MIA 17% → 22% +4
  3. Q15:31Al Horford makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)MIA 11 – 18 BOS · BOS 81% → 85% +4
  4. Q15:05Derrick White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)MIA 13 – 21 BOS · BOS 82% → 86% +4
  5. Q14:45Bam Adebayo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Delon Wright assists)MIA 16 – 21 BOS · MIA 14% → 18% +4

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Celtics 76%

StrongHit
MIA 24%BOS 76%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
BOS 76%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -8.5
BOS 80%
Fair odds
BOS -308
MIA +308 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIA 100.9 – 109.4 BOS
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMIABOSWhy
Team rating15481692Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−44+19MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −45, Terry Rozier −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsBOS +243 EloBOS 80.2%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 74.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 75.5%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Miami Heat and Boston Celtics compared, with each team's league rank
MIAStatBOS
26th of 30110.1Points scored120.62nd of 30
3rd of 30108.4Points allowed109.25th of 30
16th of 30+1.8Margin+11.31st of 30
20th of 30112.3Offense rating121.11st of 30
5th of 30110.5Defense rating109.73rd of 30
29th of 3097.7Pace98.821st of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 107–33rd of 30
7th of 3024–17Road vs home37–41st of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Heat

−44 Elo
  • Jimmy Butler III sprained right mcl−45 Elo
  • Terry Rozier neck spasms−5 Elo

Celtics

+19 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

HeatCeltics
1400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

MIA 1–6 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.