Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Eugene OmoruyiPoints26
- Corey KispertAssists8
- Patrick Baldwin Jr.Rebounds7
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints38
- Payton PritchardAssists12
- Payton PritchardRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–132
- Q44.1Jared Butler makes 7-foot two point shot122–132
- Q415.1shot clock turnover120–132
- Q438.1Jaden Springer defensive rebound120–132
- Q440.2Jared Butler misses driving layup120–132
- Q450.1Wizards Full timeout120–132
- Q450.1Payton Pritchard makes driving layup120–132
- Q41:07Eugene Omoruyi makes 2-foot driving dunk (Jared Butler assists)120–130
- Q41:16Payton Pritchard makes 13-foot pullup jump shot118–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:15Svi Mykhailiuk makes three point jumper (JD Davison assists)WSH 39 – 40 BOS · BOS 67% → 74% +7BOS 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q26:00Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)WSH 41 – 45 BOS · BOS 73% → 79% +6BOS 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q22:19Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)WSH 55 – 58 BOS · BOS 70% → 77% +7BOS 70% → 77%+7 pts
- Q21:56Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotWSH 55 – 61 BOS · BOS 76% → 82% +6BOS 76% → 82%+6 pts
- Q231.0Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot step back jumpshotWSH 59 – 66 BOS · BOS 78% → 84% +6BOS 78% → 84%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -12
- BOS 87%
- Fair odds
- BOS -309
- WSH +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.2 – 120.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1301 | 1692 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | −106 | WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −12, Richaun Holmes −1 · BOS: Missing Derrick White −27 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +332 Elo | BOS 87.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 75.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 120.42nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.9 | Points allowed | 109.15th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.3 | Margin | +11.41st of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 121.01st of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 109.62nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.3 | Pace | 98.722nd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 308–32 | Road vs home | 36–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−10 Elo- Tristan Vukcevic right ankle sprain−12 Elo
- Richaun Holmes left toe−1 Elo
Celtics
−106 Elo- Derrick White left ankle sprain−27 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–3 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.