Miami Heat at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints24
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists4
- Bam AdebayoRebounds6
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints23
- Jayson TatumAssists10
- Jayson TatumRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–114
- Q413.1Derrick White defensive rebound94–114
- Q415.0Tyler Herro misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot94–114
- Q432.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 294–114
- Q432.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 294–113
- Q432.1Caleb Martin shooting foul94–112
- Q447.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. bad pass (Jayson Tatum steals)94–112
- Q459.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 294–112
- Q459.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 294–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:39Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)MIA 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 75% → 80% +5BOS 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q15:04Payton Pritchard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)MIA 10 – 20 BOS · BOS 85% → 88% +4BOS 85% → 88%+4 pts
- Q211:18Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)MIA 23 – 29 BOS · BOS 78% → 83% +5BOS 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q210:46Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)MIA 25 – 32 BOS · BOS 80% → 84% +5BOS 80% → 84%+5 pts
- Q210:04Sam Hauser makes 22-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)MIA 25 – 35 BOS · BOS 84% → 88% +4BOS 84% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9
- BOS 81%
- Fair odds
- BOS -305
- MIA +305 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 103.4 – 111.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1694 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | +40 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −42, Terry Rozier −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +248 Elo | BOS 80.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 75.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 109.25th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 121.11st of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 37–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−23 Elo- Jimmy Butler III injury/illness−42 Elo
- Terry Rozier injury/illness−3 Elo
Celtics
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–3 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.