Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints22
- Jayson TatumAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints20
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–84
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–84
- Q418.08 second turnover104–84
- Q424.1Svi Mykhailiuk defensive rebound104–84
- Q428.1Patty Mills misses 26-foot three point jumper104–84
- Q445.1Orlando Robinson defensive rebound104–84
- Q448.0Sam Hauser misses 27-foot three point jumper104–84
- Q41:01Oshae Brissett defensive rebound104–84
- Q41:06Orlando Robinson misses 23-foot three point jumper104–84
- Q41:21Luke Kornet makes free throw 2 of 2104–84
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:14Kristaps Porzingis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 3 – 0 MIA · BOS 66% → 71% +6BOS 66% → 71%+6 pts
- Q18:58Kristaps Porzingis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 8 – 3 MIA · BOS 70% → 75% +5BOS 70% → 75%+5 pts
- Q15:13Nikola Jovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Haywood Highsmith assists)BOS 12 – 6 MIA · MIA 19% → 23% +5MIA 19% → 23%+5 pts
- Q12:44Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 17 – 8 MIA · BOS 76% → 81% +5BOS 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q211:45Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointer (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 24 – 12 MIA · BOS 82% → 86% +4BOS 82% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5.5
- BOS 70%
- Fair odds
- BOS -195
- MIA +195 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 109.7 – 104.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1677 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | −29 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −44, Terry Rozier −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +150 Elo | BOS 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 110.126th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 108.43rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.3 | Margin | +1.816th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 110.55th of 30 |
| 21st of 3098.8 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–14 | Road vs home | 22–1917th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−29 Elo- Jimmy Butler III sprained right mcl−44 Elo
- Terry Rozier neck spasms−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–1 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.