Miami Heat at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints24
- Tyler HerroAssists14
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints33
- Derrick WhiteAssists4
- Jaylen BrownRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–101
- Q41.1shot clock turnover111–101
- Q426.1Caleb Martin defensive rebound111–101
- Q428.1Jaylen Brown misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot111–101
- Q433.1Tyler Herro makes free throw 2 of 2111–101
- Q433.1Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 2110–101
- Q433.1Jrue Holiday personal take foul109–101
- Q435.1Payton Pritchard enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis109–101
- Q435.1Heat Full timeout109–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q355.0Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 85 – 77 BOS · MIA 54% → 66% +12MIA 54% → 66%+12 pts
- Q410:10Delon Wright makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 88 – 79 BOS · MIA 63% → 75% +12MIA 63% → 75%+12 pts
- Q46:59Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)MIA 92 – 86 BOS · BOS 17% → 30% +12BOS 17% → 30%+12 pts
- Q46:06Haywood Highsmith makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 97 – 89 BOS · MIA 68% → 82% +14MIA 68% → 82%+14 pts
- Q45:37Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 100 – 91 BOS · MIA 74% → 87% +12MIA 74% → 87%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10
- BOS 83%
- Fair odds
- BOS -349
- MIA +349 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 102.5 – 112.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1699 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | +46 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −41, Terry Rozier −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +276 Elo | BOS 83.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 77.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 77.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 109.25th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 121.11st of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 37–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−35 Elo- Jimmy Butler III right knee injury−41 Elo
- Terry Rozier neck spasms−3 Elo
Celtics
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–4 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.