Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints38
- Jrue HolidayAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints25
- Bam AdebayoAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–88
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–88
- Q42.0Jayson Tatum defensive rebound102–88
- Q46.0Caleb Martin misses 25-foot step back jumpshot102–88
- Q415.0shot clock turnover102–88
- Q440.0Caleb Martin makes 25-foot three pointer102–88
- Q450.1Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)102–85
- Q41:10Caleb Martin makes two point shot (Bam Adebayo assists)99–85
- Q41:19Bam Adebayo defensive rebound99–83
- Q41:22Al Horford misses 23-foot step back jumpshot99–83
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:27Nikola Jovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)BOS 2 – 3 MIA · MIA 27% → 33% +5MIA 27% → 33%+5 pts
- Q110:02Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 7 – 3 MIA · BOS 71% → 76% +5BOS 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q19:41Tyler Herro makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)BOS 7 – 6 MIA · MIA 24% → 29% +5MIA 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q15:56Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 18 – 12 MIA · BOS 74% → 79% +5BOS 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q14:59Derrick White makes 28-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 23 – 14 MIA · BOS 79% → 83% +5BOS 79% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 74%
- Fair odds
- BOS -224
- MIA +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 109.1 – 103.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1686 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | −41 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −41, Terry Rozier −4 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +183 Elo | BOS 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 69.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 110.126th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 108.43rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.3 | Margin | +1.816th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 110.55th of 30 |
| 21st of 3098.8 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–14 | Road vs home | 22–1917th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−41 Elo- Jimmy Butler III mcl−41 Elo
- Terry Rozier neck spasms−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 5–1 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.