Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints33
- Donovan MitchellAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints32
- Derrick WhiteAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–120
- Q423.1shot clock turnover95–120
- Q447.1Oshae Brissett defensive rebound95–120
- Q448.1Georges Niang misses 26-foot three point jumper95–120
- Q41:02Neemias Queta makes alley oop layup (Payton Pritchard assists)95–120
- Q41:18Neemias Queta defensive rebound95–118
- Q41:19Tristan Thompson misses 6-foot hook shot95–118
- Q41:31Georges Niang defensive rebound95–118
- Q41:31Oshae Brissett misses free throw 2 of 295–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:15Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Jayson Tatum assists)CLE 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 75% → 80% +5BOS 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q17:02Isaac Okoro makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 15 – 16 BOS · CLE 19% → 24% +5CLE 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q16:46Derrick White makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 15 – 19 BOS · BOS 76% → 81% +5BOS 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q16:28Darius Garland makes 26-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 18 – 19 BOS · CLE 19% → 24% +5CLE 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q15:32Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotCLE 23 – 21 BOS · CLE 24% → 30% +6CLE 24% → 30%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -11
- BOS 86%
- Fair odds
- BOS -309
- CLE +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 104.3 – 112.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1700 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | +18 | CLE: Missing Jarrett Allen −36 · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +309 Elo | BOS 85.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 75.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 109.25th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 121.11st of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 37–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−40 Elo- Jarrett Allen right rib contusion−36 Elo
Celtics
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.