Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints33
- Jayson TatumAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints30
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–102
- Q42.1Caris LeVert makes 15-foot pullup jump shot109–102
- Q413.2Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2109–100
- Q413.2Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2108–100
- Q413.2Sam Merrill personal take foul107–100
- Q413.2Jayson Tatum defensive rebound107–100
- Q414.1Darius Garland misses two point shot107–100
- Q423.0Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2107–100
- Q423.0Payton Pritchard enters the game for Al Horford106–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:22Darius Garland makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)BOS 55 – 53 CLE · CLE 20% → 26% +6CLE 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q21:48Darius Garland makes 30-foot three pointerBOS 57 – 56 CLE · CLE 22% → 29% +7CLE 22% → 29%+7 pts
- Q24.2Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot step back jumpshotBOS 62 – 57 CLE · BOS 73% → 80% +7BOS 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q36:31Caris LeVert makes 25-foot step back jumpshotBOS 71 – 68 CLE · CLE 18% → 25% +7CLE 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q33:14Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot step back jumpshotBOS 81 – 74 CLE · BOS 77% → 85% +8BOS 77% → 85%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8.5
- BOS 80%
- Fair odds
- BOS -292
- CLE +292 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 111.7 – 103.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1666 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | −116 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Missing Donovan Mitchell −74, Jarrett Allen −47 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +242 Elo | BOS 80.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 74.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 112.620th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 110.27th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.3 | Margin | +2.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 111.06th of 30 |
| 21st of 3098.8 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–14 | Road vs home | 25–1511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−116 Elo- Donovan Mitchell left calf strain−74 Elo
- Jarrett Allen rib contusion−47 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–2 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.