Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints33
- Jayson TatumAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds13
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints33
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–93
- Q416.0shot clock turnover106–93
- Q440.0Caris LeVert makes driving layup106–93
- Q456.0Jordan Walsh enters the game for Jayson Tatum106–91
- Q456.0Svi Mykhailiuk personal take foul106–91
- Q41:00Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2106–91
- Q41:00Svi Mykhailiuk enters the game for Derrick White105–91
- Q41:00Jaden Springer enters the game for Jaylen Brown105–91
- Q41:00Oshae Brissett enters the game for Jrue Holiday105–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:06Jaylen Brown makes 30-foot three pointerBOS 17 – 15 CLE · BOS 61% → 67% +6BOS 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q13:54Dean Wade makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)BOS 17 – 18 CLE · CLE 33% → 39% +6CLE 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q13:32Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 20 – 18 CLE · BOS 61% → 67% +6BOS 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q29:04Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 37 – 32 CLE · BOS 66% → 73% +7BOS 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q26:53Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot step back jumpshotBOS 41 – 38 CLE · CLE 25% → 31% +7CLE 25% → 31%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5.5
- BOS 71%
- Fair odds
- BOS -179
- CLE +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 110.5 – 106.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1660 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −43 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Missing Jarrett Allen −36 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +152 Elo | BOS 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 112.620th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 110.27th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.3 | Margin | +2.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 111.06th of 30 |
| 21st of 3098.8 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–14 | Road vs home | 25–1511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−43 Elo- Jarrett Allen right rib contusion−36 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.