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Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast

FinalBOS wins series 4-1

Away

Cavaliers

48-34

98–113

at

Home

Celtics

64-18

CLE 17%BOS 83%

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TD Garden · TNT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored CLE favored99 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4BOS50%CLE

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Cavaliers
Celtics

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game98–113
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–113
  • Q49.1Derrick White defensive rebound98–113
  • Q411.1Sam Merrill misses 23-foot three point jumper98–113
  • Q422.0Max Strus defensive rebound98–113
  • Q424.1Derrick White misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot98–113
  • Q445.0Evan Mobley makes driving layup (Max Strus assists)98–113
  • Q448.0Payton Pritchard enters the game for Al Horford96–113
  • Q456.1Al Horford makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)96–113
  • Q41:14Jayson Tatum defensive rebound96–110

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q27:13Marcus Morris Sr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 44 – 40 BOS · CLE 24% → 31% +6
  2. Q26:30Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)CLE 46 – 43 BOS · BOS 64% → 71% +7
  3. Q24:02Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)CLE 48 – 48 BOS · BOS 70% → 77% +7
  4. Q410:59Marcus Morris Sr. makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 83 – 86 BOS · CLE 13% → 22% +8
  5. Q48:37Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)CLE 85 – 93 BOS · BOS 85% → 92% +7

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Celtics 83%

StrongHit
CLE 17%BOS 83%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
BOS 83%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -12
BOS 87%
Fair odds
BOS -484
CLE +484 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CLE 101.4 – 113.4 BOS
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCLEBOSWhy
Team rating15151669Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−125+15CLE: Missing Donovan Mitchell −81, Jarrett Allen −52, Caris LeVert −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsBOS +330 EloBOS 87.0%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 82.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 82.9%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics compared, with each team's league rank
CLEStatBOS
20th of 30112.6Points scored120.62nd of 30
7th of 30110.2Points allowed109.25th of 30
13th of 30+2.4Margin+11.31st of 30
17th of 30113.4Offense rating121.11st of 30
6th of 30111.0Defense rating109.73rd of 30
26th of 3098.5Pace98.821st of 30
19th of 304–6Last 107–33rd of 30
12th of 3022–19Road vs home37–41st of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Cavaliers

−125 Elo
  • Donovan Mitchell left calf strain−81 Elo
  • Jarrett Allen right rib contusion−52 Elo
  • Caris LeVert left knee−15 Elo

Celtics

+15 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CavaliersCeltics
150015501600165017001750NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

CLE 2–5 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.