Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints26
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints27
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–106
- Q411.0Heat defensive team rebound114–106
- Q411.0LaMelo Ball misses driving dunk114–106
- Q416.2Jimmy Butler makes free throw 2 of 2114–106
- Q416.2Jimmy Butler makes free throw 1 of 2113–106
- Q416.2LaMelo Ball loose ball foul112–106
- Q416.2Terry Rozier vs. Miles Bridges112–106
- Q429.0LaMelo Ball makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot112–106
- Q434.1Terry Rozier makes 22-foot three point jumper112–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:30Jimmy Butler makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 102 – 96 CHA · MIA 79% → 93% +14MIA 79% → 93%+14 pts
- Q42:15Tre Mann makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 102 – 99 CHA · CHA 6% → 20% +14CHA 6% → 20%+14 pts
- Q41:54Jimmy Butler makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotMIA 104 – 99 CHA · MIA 81% → 92% +11MIA 81% → 92%+11 pts
- Q41:36Tre Mann makes 17-foot pullup jump shotMIA 104 – 101 CHA · CHA 6% → 17% +11CHA 6% → 17%+11 pts
- Q41:15Tyler Herro makes 30-foot three pointer (Terry Rozier assists)MIA 107 – 101 CHA · MIA 85% → 98% +13MIA 85% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -5.5
- ML MIA -250 / CHA +205
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3
- MIA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 62.5%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -218
- CHA +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 114.5 – 109.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −10 | −6 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +89 Elo | MIA 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 106.628th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 116.822nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −10.230th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 107.827th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 118.130th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 98.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 11–3026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 4–0 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.