Orlando Magic at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints33
- Cole AnthonyAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds14
Heat- Terry RozierPoints19
- Terry RozierAssists5
- Terry RozierRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–97
- Q416.2Haywood Highsmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dru Smith assists)116–97
- Q425.1shot clock turnover116–94
- Q449.1Pelle Larsson makes two point shot (Nikola Jovic assists)116–94
- Q452.2Goga Bitadze bad pass (Pelle Larsson steals)116–92
- Q41:14Nikola Jovic makes 4-foot two point shot116–92
- Q41:31Nikola Jovic defensive rebound116–90
- Q41:34Tristan da Silva misses 23-foot three point jumper116–90
- Q41:45Nikola Jovic makes 3-foot two point shot (Haywood Highsmith assists)116–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:24Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Haywood Highsmith assists)ORL 43 – 45 MIA · MIA 52% → 59% +8MIA 52% → 59%+8 pts
- Q23:48Franz Wagner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)ORL 49 – 49 MIA · ORL 38% → 46% +8ORL 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q21:15Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three pointerORL 55 – 54 MIA · ORL 41% → 49% +9ORL 41% → 49%+9 pts
- Q21.0Gary Harris makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Anthony Black assists)ORL 58 – 54 MIA · ORL 49% → 58% +9ORL 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q310:14Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 64 – 54 MIA · ORL 67% → 75% +8ORL 67% → 75%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -1.5
- ML ORL +115 / MIA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 58.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -124
- ORL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 103.0 – 104.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 207.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −2 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Kevin Love −1 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +56 Elo | MIA 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 110.126th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 108.43rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +1.816th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 110.55th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.6 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 22–1917th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−2 Elo- Kevin Love personal−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–3 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.