Denver Nuggets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints40
- Aaron GordonAssists8
- Aaron GordonRebounds11
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints21
- Scottie BarnesAssists9
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds19
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game127–125
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime127–125
- OT0.0Raptors offensive team rebound127–125
- OT0.0Jakob Poeltl misses two point shot127–125
- OT0.0Jakob Poeltl offensive rebound127–125
- OT0.0Ochai Agbaji misses tip shot127–125
- OT3.1Ochai Agbaji offensive rebound127–125
- OT3.1RJ Barrett misses 28-foot three point shot127–125
- OT9.1Jakob Poeltl defensive rebound127–125
- OT12.0Christian Braun misses 22-foot three point jumper127–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q414.1Nikola Jokic makes 5-foot two point shot (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 112 – 113 TOR · DEN 1% → 24% +23DEN 1% → 24%+23 pts
- Q49.0Davion Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2DEN 112 – 114 TOR · TOR 81% → 97% +15TOR 81% → 97%+15 pts
- Q40.1Jamal Murray makes two point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 114 – 114 TOR · DEN 0% → 50% +50DEN 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT4:04Jamal Murray makes two point shotDEN 118 – 116 TOR · DEN 58% → 71% +13DEN 58% → 71%+13 pts
- OT2:02Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)DEN 124 – 121 TOR · TOR 5% → 18% +14TOR 5% → 18%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -8.5
- ML DEN -375 / TOR +290
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 64.6%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- DEN -308
- TOR +308 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 116.0 – 107.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −18 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −12 | DEN crossed 2 time zones and TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +105 Elo | DEN 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 112.421st of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 118.825th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.3 | Margin | −6.424th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 110.424th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 116.726th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 101.111th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 14–2724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 2–0 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.