Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints28
- DeMar DeRozanAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints21
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists11
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–96
- Q414.1Alex Len defensive rebound113–96
- Q415.1Brice Sensabaugh misses 25-foot three point jumper113–96
- Q416.0Brice Sensabaugh offensive rebound113–96
- Q418.2Colby Jones blocks Drew Eubanks 's 6-foot layup113–96
- Q427.1Colby Jones out of bounds bad pass turnover113–96
- Q432.0Brice Sensabaugh makes driving layup113–96
- Q435.0Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound113–94
- Q438.1Doug McDermott misses 25-foot three point jumper113–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:46Brice Sensabaugh makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)SAC 46 – 43 UTAH · UTAH 22% → 28% +6UTAH 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q25:34Malik Monk makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 49 – 43 UTAH · SAC 72% → 78% +6SAC 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q24:58Keyonte George makes 22-foot three point shot (Cody Williams assists)SAC 49 – 46 UTAH · UTAH 22% → 28% +6UTAH 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q24:10Domantas Sabonis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 52 – 46 UTAH · SAC 72% → 78% +6SAC 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q311:22Kyle Filipowski makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)SAC 61 – 58 UTAH · UTAH 22% → 29% +7UTAH 22% → 29%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -6.5
- ML SAC -250 / UTAH +205
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -5
- SAC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- SAC: Elo 69.3%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- SAC -218
- UTAH +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 121.0 – 114.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | UTAH and SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +50 | −21 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SAC +141 Elo | SAC 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 104.030th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 121.027th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −17.030th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 99.330th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 115.627th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.3 | Pace | 104.48th of 30 |
| 21st of 300–1 | Road vs home | 0–220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 3–0 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.