Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints23
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists5
- Walker KesslerRebounds11
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints23
- Kyrie IrvingAssists9
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–110
- Q410.0shot clock turnover102–110
- Q434.1Keyonte George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)102–110
- Q439.1Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound99–110
- Q441.1Brandon Williams misses driving layup99–110
- Q41:02Jordan Clarkson makes free throw 2 of 299–110
- Q41:02Kyle Filipowski enters the game for Walker Kessler98–110
- Q41:02Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for Lauri Markkanen98–110
- Q41:02Jordan Clarkson makes free throw 1 of 298–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:37Walker Kessler makes two point shot (Kyle Filipowski assists)UTAH 63 – 65 DAL · UTAH 18% → 23% +5UTAH 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q34:01Keyonte George makes dunk (John Collins assists)UTAH 65 – 67 DAL · UTAH 18% → 23% +5UTAH 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q33:26Spencer Dinwiddie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)UTAH 65 – 70 DAL · DAL 77% → 84% +8DAL 77% → 84%+8 pts
- Q410:26John Collins makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 79 – 84 DAL · UTAH 9% → 16% +7UTAH 9% → 16%+7 pts
- Q49:18Kyrie Irving makes 5-foot two point shotUTAH 81 – 88 DAL · DAL 85% → 90% +5DAL 85% → 90%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -11.5
- ML UTAH +475 / DAL -700
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -9
- DAL 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 80.8%, market 83.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -503
- UTAH +503 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 110.0 – 121.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1398 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | +1 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | UTAH crossed 1 time zone and DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +250 Elo | DAL 80.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 77.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 77.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 83.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 115.620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.9 | Margin | +2.214th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–31 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.