Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints15
- Al HorfordAssists4
- Jayson TatumRebounds5
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints29
- Kyrie IrvingAssists6
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game84–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter84–122
- Q420.0shot clock turnover84–122
- Q444.0Payton Pritchard makes two point shot84–122
- Q447.1Payton Pritchard defensive rebound82–122
- Q449.2Tim Hardaway Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper82–122
- Q41:06Payton Pritchard makes driving layup82–122
- Q41:12Markieff Morris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)80–122
- Q41:14Jaden Hardy offensive rebound80–119
- Q41:17Markieff Morris misses 23-foot three point jumper80–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:59Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three pointer (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 5 – 4 DAL · BOS 57% → 63% +6BOS 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q16:14Dereck Lively II makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)BOS 11 – 13 DAL · DAL 37% → 44% +6DAL 37% → 44%+6 pts
- Q157.1Derrick White makes 30-foot three point jumperBOS 21 – 28 DAL · BOS 37% → 44% +7BOS 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q143.2Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three point jumperBOS 21 – 31 DAL · DAL 56% → 63% +7DAL 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q129.1P.J. Washington makes 25-foot three point shot (Kyrie Irving assists)BOS 21 – 34 DAL · DAL 63% → 70% +7DAL 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.7% of 394 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 63%
- Fair odds
- BOS -159
- DAL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 109.4 – 105.8 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1710 | 1627 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | −12 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +95 Elo | BOS 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 115.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.3 | Margin | +2.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 21st of 3098.8 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3027–14 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 5–0 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.