Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints32
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Celtics- Jrue HolidayPoints26
- Jayson TatumAssists12
- Jrue HolidayRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–105
- Q41.1shot clock turnover98–105
- Q425.1Jrue Holiday defensive rebound98–105
- Q427.0Luka Doncic misses 25-foot three point shot98–105
- Q429.1Mavericks Full timeout98–105
- Q429.1Jaylen Brown makes driving layup98–105
- Q449.1Jrue Holiday defensive rebound98–103
- Q450.1Derrick White blocks P.J. Washington 's 1-foot dunk98–103
- Q454.0P.J. Washington defensive rebound98–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:01Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)DAL 35 – 36 BOS · BOS 61% → 68% +7BOS 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q22:16Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 47 – 46 BOS · DAL 30% → 38% +8DAL 30% → 38%+8 pts
- Q237.0Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)DAL 49 – 54 BOS · BOS 69% → 77% +7BOS 69% → 77%+7 pts
- Q39:22Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)DAL 57 – 62 BOS · BOS 69% → 77% +8BOS 69% → 77%+8 pts
- Q30.0Payton Pritchard makes 34-foot three point shotDAL 74 – 83 BOS · BOS 81% → 88% +7BOS 81% → 88%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5.5
- BOS 70%
- Fair odds
- BOS -225
- DAL +225 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 105.5 – 111.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1699 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +41 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +148 Elo | BOS 70.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 69.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 109.25th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 121.11st of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 37–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–3 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.