Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints25
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Pascal SiakamRebounds12
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints36
- Derrick WhiteAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game128–133
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime128–133
- OT2.0Jaylen Brown defensive rebound128–133
- OT6.0Tyrese Haliburton misses 26-foot three point jumper128–133
- OT8.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2128–133
- OT8.1Myles Turner enters the game for T.J. McConnell128–132
- OT8.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2128–132
- OT8.1Pascal Siakam personal take foul128–131
- OT12.2Obi Toppin makes free throw 2 of 2128–131
- OT12.2Obi Toppin makes free throw 1 of 2127–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:02Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)IND 111 – 110 BOS · BOS 24% → 46% +23BOS 24% → 46%+23 pts
- Q446.1Andrew Nembhard makes 19-foot step back jumpshotIND 117 – 114 BOS · IND 64% → 88% +24IND 64% → 88%+24 pts
- Q46.0Jaylen Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)IND 117 – 117 BOS · BOS <1% → 51% +51BOS <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT1:12Jayson Tatum makes driving layup (Derrick White assists)IND 123 – 123 BOS · BOS 28% → 53% +25BOS 28% → 53%+25 pts
- OT42.2Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Derrick White assists)IND 123 – 127 BOS · BOS 69% → 96% +28BOS 69% → 96%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4.5
- BOS 68%
- Fair odds
- BOS -211
- IND +211 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.7 – 118.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1672 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +23 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +130 Elo | BOS 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 67.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 109.25th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 121.11st of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 37–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.