New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Donte DiVincenzoPoints35
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Josh HartRebounds18
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints35
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists7
- Myles TurnerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–111
- Q43.0Miles McBride offensive rebound106–111
- Q43.0Donte DiVincenzo misses 27-foot three point jumper106–111
- Q49.1Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 2 of 2106–111
- Q49.1Isaiah Hartenstein enters the game for Alec Burks106–110
- Q49.1Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 1 of 2106–110
- Q49.1Alec Burks personal take foul106–109
- Q410.0Ben Sheppard defensive rebound106–109
- Q413.1Jalen Brunson misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot106–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:53Jalen Brunson makes 13-foot step back jumpshotNY 101 – 100 IND · NY 44% → 58% +15NY 44% → 58%+15 pts
- Q41:55Andrew Nembhard makes two point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NY 102 – 104 IND · IND 49% → 69% +20IND 49% → 69%+20 pts
- Q454.0Pascal Siakam makes two point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NY 103 – 106 IND · IND 64% → 87% +23IND 64% → 87%+23 pts
- Q442.1Jalen Brunson makes 28-foot step back jumpshotNY 106 – 106 IND · NY 10% → 51% +40NY 10% → 51%+40 pts
- Q417.1Andrew Nembhard makes 31-foot step back jumpshotNY 106 – 109 IND · IND 50% → 98% +48IND 50% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1.5
- NY 57%
- Fair odds
- NY -119
- IND +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.1 – 114.8 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1618 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +17 | NY: Missing OG Anunoby −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +47 Elo | NY 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 123.11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 120.327th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +2.810th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 118.72nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 115.924th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.2 | Pace | 103.62nd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+21 Elo- OG Anunoby left hamstring strain−15 Elo
Pacers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 3–2 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.