Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints34
- T.J. McConnellAssists12
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints29
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–130
- Q418.0Tyrese Haliburton makes 32-foot three pointer121–130
- Q422.1Donte DiVincenzo makes free throw 2 of 2118–130
- Q422.1Donte DiVincenzo makes free throw 1 of 2118–129
- Q422.1Aaron Nesmith personal take foul118–128
- Q424.1Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound118–128
- Q426.0Myles Turner misses 25-foot three point jumper118–128
- Q431.0Pascal Siakam defensive rebound118–128
- Q433.2Rick Carlisle ejected118–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:43Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)IND 101 – 105 NY · NY 61% → 75% +14NY 61% → 75%+14 pts
- Q46:18Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot step back jumpshotIND 105 – 110 NY · NY 66% → 80% +14NY 66% → 80%+14 pts
- Q45:49Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)IND 108 – 110 NY · IND 19% → 33% +14IND 19% → 33%+14 pts
- Q44:20Donte DiVincenzo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)IND 110 – 115 NY · NY 68% → 84% +16NY 68% → 84%+16 pts
- Q43:27Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot step back jumpshotIND 113 – 117 NY · IND 7% → 19% +12IND 7% → 19%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 66%
- Fair odds
- NY -181
- IND +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.3 – 116.8 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +32 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +116 Elo | NY 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 112.819th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 108.22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +4.65th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 115.87th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Pace | 97.230th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 2–2 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.