Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds6
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints43
- Josh HartAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–121
- Q44.0Tyrese Haliburton bad pass (Josh Hart steals)117–121
- Q410.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2117–121
- Q410.1Myles Turner enters the game for T.J. McConnell117–120
- Q410.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2117–120
- Q410.1Andrew Nembhard personal foul117–119
- Q412.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 1117–119
- Q412.1Andrew Nembhard away from play foul117–118
- Q412.1T.J. McConnell enters the game for Myles Turner117–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:04Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)IND 109 – 107 NY · NY 21% → 40% +18NY 21% → 40%+18 pts
- Q41:33Andrew Nembhard makes 1-foot two point shotIND 115 – 113 NY · IND 48% → 70% +22IND 48% → 70%+22 pts
- Q41:14Jalen Brunson makes 12-foot two point shotIND 115 – 115 NY · NY 28% → 52% +25NY 28% → 52%+25 pts
- Q440.1Donte DiVincenzo makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)IND 115 – 118 NY · NY 52% → 91% +40NY 52% → 91%+40 pts
- Q426.1Pascal Siakam makes 3-foot two point shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)IND 117 – 118 NY · IND 5% → 28% +23IND 5% → 28%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 65%
- Fair odds
- NY -172
- IND +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.1 – 116.2 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +30 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +106 Elo | NY 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 63.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 112.819th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 108.22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +4.65th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 115.87th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Pace | 97.230th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 2–1 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.