Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints22
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists5
- Pascal SiakamRebounds8
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints44
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–121
- Q412.0James Johnson bad pass (Shake Milton steals)91–121
- Q422.1Pacers defensive team rebound91–121
- Q423.1Precious Achiuwa misses 22-foot three point jumper91–121
- Q443.1Jericho Sims defensive rebound91–121
- Q444.1James Johnson misses free throw 2 of 291–121
- Q444.1James Johnson makes free throw 1 of 291–121
- Q444.1DaQuan Jeffries shooting foul90–121
- Q41:00Shake Milton makes free throw 2 of 290–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:02Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)IND 4 – 5 NY · NY 47% → 58% +11NY 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q19:24Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 9 – 5 NY · IND 42% → 53% +11IND 42% → 53%+11 pts
- Q13:57Ben Sheppard makes 22-foot three point shot (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 25 – 20 NY · IND 49% → 56% +7IND 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q12:38Josh Hart makes 22-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)IND 25 – 29 NY · NY 58% → 64% +7NY 58% → 64%+7 pts
- Q39:56Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 63 – 70 NY · IND 19% → 26% +7IND 19% → 26%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- NY 52%
- Fair odds
- NY -126
- IND +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 113.1 – 114.9 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −13 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Missing OG Anunoby −10 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +17 Elo | NY 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 55.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 112.819th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 108.22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +4.65th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 115.87th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Pace | 97.230th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 27–148th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−13 Elo- OG Anunoby left hamstring strain−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 4–3 NY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.