New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Alec BurksPoints20
- Jalen BrunsonAssists5
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds6
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints20
- T.J. McConnellAssists10
- Aaron NesmithRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–121
- Q44.1shot clock turnover89–121
- Q427.1Shake Milton defensive rebound89–121
- Q430.2Jarace Walker misses 19-foot two point shot89–121
- Q454.1Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound89–121
- Q457.1DaQuan Jeffries misses 26-foot three point jumper89–121
- Q41:16Isaiah Jackson makes dunk (Jalen Smith assists)89–121
- Q41:19Miles McBride bad pass (Jalen Smith steals)89–119
- Q41:26Mamadi Diakite defensive rebound89–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:24Tyrese Haliburton makes 29-foot running pullup jump shotNY 2 – 5 IND · IND 48% → 55% +6IND 48% → 55%+6 pts
- Q17:43Tyrese Haliburton makes 28-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)NY 4 – 10 IND · IND 55% → 61% +6IND 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q14:43Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point shotNY 6 – 17 IND · IND 66% → 72% +6IND 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q13:06Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 11 – 24 IND · NY 19% → 24% +5NY 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q12:34Ben Sheppard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)NY 11 – 29 IND · IND 80% → 84% +5IND 80% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1
- NY 53%
- Fair odds
- NY -107
- IND +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 115.1 – 114.6 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1610 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +17 | NY: Missing OG Anunoby −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +23 Elo | NY 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 123.11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 120.327th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +2.810th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 118.72nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 115.924th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.2 | Pace | 103.62nd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+13 Elo- OG Anunoby left hamstring strain−14 Elo
Pacers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 3–3 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.