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New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

FinalSeries tied 3-3

Away

Knicks

50-32

103–116

at

Home

Pacers

47-35

NY 50%IND 50%

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Gainbridge Fieldhouse · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored NY favored112 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%NY

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Pacers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game103–116
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–116
  • Q421.1shot clock turnover103–116
  • Q447.0DaQuan Jeffries makes 23-foot three point shot (Mamadi Diakite assists)103–116
  • Q451.1Mamadi Diakite defensive rebound100–116
  • Q454.0Kendall Brown misses driving layup100–116
  • Q41:16Alec Burks makes free throw 2 of 2100–116
  • Q41:16Jarace Walker enters the game for Ben Sheppard99–116
  • Q41:16Alec Burks makes free throw 1 of 299–116
  • Q41:16Kendall Brown personal take foul98–116

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q134.1Obi Toppin makes 25-foot three pointerNY 29 – 29 IND · IND 43% → 50% +7
  2. Q27:13Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot step back jumpshotNY 41 – 42 IND · IND 45% → 52% +8
  3. Q26:19Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)NY 46 – 44 IND · NY 48% → 56% +8
  4. Q24:48Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NY 46 – 51 IND · IND 55% → 63% +8
  5. Q311:00Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NY 56 – 64 IND · IND 64% → 72% +8

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Knicks 50%

Toss-upMiss
NY 50%IND 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
NY 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -0.5
NY 51%
Fair odds
NY -102
IND +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NY 113.4 – 113.3 IND
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYINDWhy
Team rating16051551Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−7+4NY: Missing OG Anunoby −7 · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsNY +8 EloNY 51.1%
Market-implied ratingsNY 50.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 50.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
NYStatIND
19th of 30112.8Points scored123.11st of 30
2nd of 30108.2Points allowed120.327th of 30
5th of 30+4.6Margin+2.810th of 30
7th of 30115.8Offense rating118.72nd of 30
7th of 30111.1Defense rating115.924th of 30
30th of 3097.2Pace103.62nd of 30
10th of 306–4Last 107–33rd of 30
11th of 3023–18Road vs home26–1510th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Knicks

−7 Elo
  • OG Anunoby left hamstring strain−7 Elo

Pacers

+4 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KnicksPacers
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

NY 4–4 IND in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.